RCP1.9 (Low Emissions Scenario) RCP6.0 (High Emissions Scenario)

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A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a representation of future anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The warming associated with the RCP6.0 pathway – roughly 2.8°C by 2100 – is consistent with estimates of our current emission pathway, including full implementation of Paris Agreement pledges and targets, which is also estimated to yield 2.8°C of warming. In short, this emission path represents our current societal trajectory well. The RCP1.9 pathway, by contrast, has been developed since the Paris Agreement to represent mitigation pathways broadly compatible with the 1.5°C temperature limit.

The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development. Educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality is reduced both across and within countries.

Highly unequal investments in human capital, combined with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power, lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and within countries. Over time, a gap widens between an internationally-connected society that contributes to knowledge- and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a fragmented collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies that work in a labor intensive, low- tech economy.